范文一:市场竞争与风险
一、羽.林项目竞争环境分析
1、波特五种竞争力模型
(1)行业竞争者(理工大学羽毛球馆尚未对外开放)
经过调查目前在我们的周围有三家羽毛球馆,它们分别是东财羽毛球馆、辽师附中羽毛球馆、海事大学羽毛球馆。我们对场地数、场地材质、收费标准、开放时间和是否有淋浴设施等方向做了对比。如表格所示:
(2)替代品
羽毛球场馆的消费替代品:公共健身器械、公园、健身会馆、游泳馆、桌球馆、网吧、KTV等 。我们周围的主要替代品:附近有桌球馆(THY台球馆),健身会馆(鼎龙健身)公园(星海公园)还有KTV(金钱柜KTV)和网吧(阿拉丁网城)等 。
我们和替代品的关系竞争性质的,此消彼长 对于消费替代品我们的优势:专业做羽毛球,我们通过开业酬宾和利用优势的地理位置
以及和社会各方面的合作把自己做大做强。 (3)潜在进入者 a. 行业进入成本/壁垒:
①资金: 据业内人士介绍,一个上了档次、上了规模的羽毛球馆,动辄要投资几百万元,少的也要二三百万元;
②服务设施和相关人员:前台接待,会籍顾问,教练陪练,维修维护 人员,清洁人员等.
b. 行业退出成本:场地设施转让损失或改造花费,返还会员会费等;
c. 进入后对本企业的威胁: 由于我们相对竞争者更早进入这个市场,对羽毛球场馆的管理以及本行业的情况了解程度较高,经过一段时期已经积累了相当知名度和会员忠诚度,只要知己知彼,新进入此行业的同等对手很难对我们构成实质性威胁,但消费者的猎奇心理也许会对我们构成一些威胁,只要稍微调整策略(例如开展优惠大酬宾等活动)即可解决相关问题
d. 对竞争者的威胁: 很难挖掘已经对我们羽毛球馆形成忠诚度的会员 (4) 消费者 2、SWTO 分析 (1)优势
a.邻近男生寝室:许多男生选择羽毛球馆都本着就近原则
b.辐射范围广:选址地处周边高校林立,交通极其便利到大工、海事
只需两站地
c.专业性强:专业是本羽毛球馆的特色,我们配有一流的陪练教练,专业的场地设施,并有一批优秀的专业运动员在本场馆作为长期会员具有良好的专业氛围。 (2)劣势
a.知名度低,未打开市场:本球馆不是连锁店不具有知名度,打开市场需要时间,以及大量的宣传。
b.在环境和服务相同的条件下规模和品牌影响力不能和一些较大规模的羽毛球馆相媲美 (3)机会
a.后奥运时代后全运,政府加大力度发展全民体育 b.人们生活水平提高,越来越注重运动与健身 c.羽毛球运动爱好者众多,市场前景好 d.周边羽毛球馆无法满足人们的需求 (4)威胁
a.周边竞争对手实力雄厚(辽师附中羽毛球馆) b.新客源容易受竞争对手冲击而流失
c.选址地段属于价格偏高的地段,而且本场馆力求做到专业前期投入较大,需承担较大风险。 3、竞争战略选择
通过市场调查可知消费者对于选择羽毛球馆最为关注的两个方面是价格和场地质量,这为我们的竞争战略选择指明了方向,我们将
选择差异化的战略,突出我们在价格和场地上的优势,在价格方面我们会采取分段收费与会员价相结合,价格表如下:
(已经预订场地者,如取消场地,需提前2小时通知本馆,否则按时预约收费 不足半小时,按半小时收费,超半小时不足1小时按1小时收费。洗浴对外开放 除打球免费提供洗浴外,其余4元/次)
储值卡式:年卡 我们会选择质量上乘的标准场地,让羽毛球爱好者充分享受到最好的比赛体验。 并且在服务上和配套设施上做足文章,在消费者心中留下美好的印象。 二、市场风险分析
从长远来看,一方面新竞争对手的加入,会使市场趋于饱和,球馆吸引新会员的数量会减少老会员的流失会增多,导致市场占有率下降;另一方面市场竞争加剧,有些球馆会采取降价的方式来吸引消费者,造成打球价格下降,压缩利润空间,导致项目的预期收益减少。 针对上述可能存在的风险,首先我们应该打造出自己的特色,在服务上做足功夫,在广大消费者心目中树立良好的形象,培养一大批忠实的会员。同时我们也应该密切关注市场动态,及时与消费者沟通,了解他们的需求,及时满足他们的需求。
范文二:市场竞争风险
市场场场场争
市场场场场的涵 争内
在市场场中~场的基本争争场机和目场是场场最大化收入。但是~场者的场期利益目场不是场能场场争并的~场场上~场本身也使场者面场不能场场其场期利益目场的危场~甚至在争会争场场利益上受到场失。场场场场
场场的利益场期利益目场场生背的可能性~就是场者面场的场场。场场是由与离争不定性确因素而造成场失
或场益的可能性。在市场场中~不定性因素多~场然每场场者都期望场场其场期利益目场~但场争确很个争
不能全都成功~必然有某些场者在场中场下场~承受场的场失。 会争争来争
市场场场场的场型 争
市场主体在场中面场的场场可以分场大场。 争区两
1.自然和社场场会
自然害、人或社场的某些行场~如水、火、场、场等~都可能场某些市场主场灾个会体灾灾盗争体
造成重大的场场场失~形成自然或社场场会。
2.场场场场或市场场场
企场在投场、生场和场等市场场场活场中~都因场策依据的信息不完全、策手段不完善、售会决决决
策场行不及场和不充分、以及场的加场等原因而蒙受场场场失~形成场场场场。 争
自然或社场场一般地场是可以用率方法场行场场的~是于可保场的场场~能通场投保而场制和会运概属
场移~场场场场场场者的主场因素和市场行场相场~其可能的场失及其程度无法场算~是不可保场的场场与运状~
从决而不能通场投保而场移~只能通场改善场场策和场场活场而降低场失的可能程度。
影市场场场场的因素 响争
市场场场的大小主要取于三基本因素决个:
1.市场场争的场模
场方投入的场力量和成本越大~场场模越大~争双争争市场场场就越大。 2.市场场的激烈程度争
市场场的激烈程度主要表场场企场场在场争争市场占有率、提高场场和盈利率等方面的抗衡场。市场售状场越激烈~场方所面场的场场就越大。 争争双
3.市场场的方式争
场方式是场方在场场所采取的手段和策略~一般可以分场争争双争划价格场争和非价格场争两场。
一般地场~价格场争场场激烈~特场是场方场番降价~场常造成场俱场。 争双两
市场场场场的作用 争
场场的存在场于市场场者争具有重意场, 双
1.场场意味着场失的可能性
场于市场场主场~必然形成巨大的和场场的场场场力~促使企场等场主场避免场失而力提争体来会争体尽
高策水平~改善企场的决场场管理~场避场场场失~提高场场效益。
2.场场也意味着场取高场收入的可能性
具有大场场的事场往往是少有场津的事场~由于事者场少甚至有~一旦成功~便有场高的收从没会
场。所以~场场的存在不场形成一场场力机制~而且场形成一场会会场力机制~方面促场企场场展。从两个
范文三:市场竞争风险
市场竞争风险
市场竞争风险的内涵
在市场竞争中,竞争的基本动机和目标是实现最大化收入。但是,竞争者的预期利益目标并不是总能实现的,实际上,竞争本身也会使竞争者面临不能实现其预期利益目标的危险,甚至在经济利益上受到损失。这种实际实现的利益与预期利益目标发生背离的可能性,就是竞争者面对的风险。风险是由不确定性因素而造成损失或获益的可能性。在市场竞争中,不确定性因素很多,虽然每个竞争者都期望实现其预期利益目标,但总不能全都成功,必然会有某些竞争者在竞争中败下阵来,承受竞争的损失。
市场竞争风险的类型
市场主体在竞争中面对的风险可以区分为两大类。
1.自然和社会风险
自然灾害、个人或社会团体的某些行为,如水灾、火灾、偷盗、战争等,都可能给某些市场主体造成重大的经济损失,形成自然或社会风险。
2.经营风险或市场风险
企业在投资、生产和销售等市场经济活动中,都会因为决策依据的信息不完全、决策手段不完善、决策执行不及时和不充分、以及竞争的加剧等原因而蒙受经济损失,形成经营风险。
自然或社会风险一般地说是可以运用概率方法进行预测的,是属于可保险的风险,能通过投保而节制和转移;经营风险与经营者的主观因素和市场运行状态相关,其可能的损失及其程度无法测算,是不可保险的风险,从而不能通过投保而转移,只能通过改善经营决策和经营活动而降低损失的可能程度。
影响市场竞争风险的因素
市场风险的大小主要取决于三个基本因素:
1.市场竞争的规模
竞争双方投入的竞争力量和成本越大,竞争规模越大,市场风险就越大。
2.市场竞争的激烈程度
市场竞争的激烈程度主要表现为企业间在争夺市场占有率、提高销售额和盈利率等方面的抗衡状态。市场竞争越激烈,竞争双方所面临的风险就越大。
3.市场竞争的方式
竞争方式是竞争双方在竞争时所采取的手段和策略,一般可以划分为价格竞争和非价格竞争两类。一般地说,价格竞争较为激烈,特别是竞争双方轮番降价,经常造成两败俱伤。 市场竞争风险的作用
风险的存在对于市场竞争者具有双重意义:
1.风险意味着损失的可能性
对于市场竞争主体来说,必然会形成巨大的和现实的经营压力,促使企业等竞争主体为避免损失而尽力提高决策水平,改善企业的经营管理,规避风险损失,提高经营效益。
2.风险也意味着获取高额收入的可能性
具有大风险的事业往往是少有问津的事业,由于从事者过少甚至没有,一旦成功,便会有较高的收获。所以,风险的存在不仅会形成一种压力机制,而且还会形成一种动力机制,从两个方面促进企业发展。
范文四:如何提高企业市场竞争与风险防范能力
如何提高企业市场竞争与风险防范能力
营销 ● 管理 ● 共赢 国际品牌网
企业家可通过认识、分析风险,采取正确的决策,从而控制和驾驭风险,减少风险损失并获得风险收益。 (1 )市场竞争与风险防范
企业家是市场经济中风险和不确定性的承担者。许多成功者都有一个共同点,喜欢冒险并勇于承担责任,善于发现潜在危机,并尽可能把这种风险减少到最低程度。
企业家风险意识表现在:一是在科学技术飞速发展,企业外部环境急剧变化的情况下,企业经营者应该是偏好风险的;二是对企业风险进行管理,采取科学的方法、系统的措施,对风险进行分析、辨识、推断、防范和处理,要求企业家敢于冒险,又善于适当地控制和化解风险。
必须看到,中国迈入WT0门槛后,市场竞争将更加激烈,如果缺少应有的忧患意识和危机意识,不努力提高自己的整体素质和竞争能力,那么在与跨国公司的竞争中我们将处于十分不利的地位。令人感奋的是,一批出色的风险防范企业出现在中国经济领域,如海尔集团以"永远战战兢兢,永远如履薄冰"为生存理念,使企业保持蓬勃向上的发展势头。再如小天鹅公司,实行"末日管理"战略,坚守"企业最好的时候,也就是最危险的时候"的理念,做到了居安思危,未雨绸缪,防患于未然,使企业始终掌握着竞争的主动权。 (2) 具有风险意识的重要性 案例 青蛙试验
曾经有一个古老的试验,将一只活蹦乱跳的青蛙投进热水锅里,青蛙会立即跳出水锅;如果把青蛙放在凉水锅里,下面用火慢慢加热,青蛙竟然一动不动,舒舒服服地浮在水里,直到它感受到烫想跳出热水锅时,却已无力逃生。 点评:这个试验耐人寻味。为什么那只青蛙一接触到热水锅时能逃脱厄运,而在慢慢加热的冷水锅中就不能幸免于难呢?根本原因,还在于其对所处环境变化觉察不到,满足于舒服的眼前环境,对未来的恶劣环境预料不足,以至于逐步丧失了抵御外界恶劣环境的能力。
对企业而言,环境是其生存的空间,也是一个不断变化的过程。面对这几年竞争环境的变迁,为什么有些企业能应变自如获得生机,而有些企业却步履维艰、关门倒闭?笔者认为,其原因与上述关于青蛙的试验颇为相似。变化的环境,如同逐步加热的水温,有些企业敏感性强,及时觉察,积极应对,因而处乱不惊,应变自如,摆脱危机;可有些企业感觉麻木,抱残守缺,得过且过,图一时之快,到了积重难返之时,只有惨遭淘汰的份了。因此,在当前复杂多变和激烈竞争的市场环境中,企业经营者们应吸取青蛙的教训,时时保持警觉,高度关注市场环境变化,并及时果断地做出应变和调整的决策。只有以变应变,才能永远立于不
营销 ● 管理 ● 共赢 国际品牌网
败之地。
(3 )如何应对危机
危机处理有时候就是一瞬间的事情,考验你的反应是否灵敏。那么当危机突然降临现代企业时,作为管理高层应怎样处理呢?
其实大部分危机爆发前有很多征兆,只是大家对其过程不熟悉,所以很难去识别。总的来说,危机的产生一般是通过舆论表现出来的,爆发前的迹象表现在以下7个方面:震惊--缺乏信息--谣言开始流传--失去控制--外部的舆论压力越来越大--不知所措--恐慌。
营销 ● 管理 ● 共赢 国际品牌网
范文五:产品市场竞争、政府控制与投资效率
产品市场竞争、政府控制与投资效率
2
(???h???W?l???F???????J??????050061?A?U???C???>???l???F???????J???,430073)
?????F?7?????????(2004MR2008?????????????)?(?????K?w?X?J????Jorgenson(1963)?????????&?k??H2Richardson
(2006)?????&?+???k???J???2?F???&?Z???k???????J???>?????L?K?R???????J???????????????(?K???????2?F???&
?+????????H(???????????????????r?F?????(?K?????7?E???????2?F?????&?+???J?????(?K?????????????[?F?J??
?&?+???????A?>?????L???2?F???????(?K?????????t?l?????J?N?????????2?F?????&?[?K?J?'???????&?+??H(
???Y???F?????(?K?????A?>?????L?A???&?Z???A???&?+?? ?U???1?????FF830???Y?4???2?FA?????c???F1001MR8409(2010)12-0019MR05 ProductMarketCompetition?JGovernment
ControlandInvestmentEfficiency
XUYi?rminl?r???rZHANGZhi?rhon92
(1?rSchoolofAccounting?JHebeiUniversityofEconomicsandBusiness?JShiiiazhuang050061?A
2?rSchoolofAccounting?JZhongnanUniversityofEconomicsandLaw?JWuhan430073) Abstract?FTakingnonMRfinanciallistedcompaniesinShanghaiandShenzhenStockMarketsasthesample?Jbasedon
govern-
mentcontrol?JthispaperempiricallyanalyzestheinfluenceofproductmarketcompetitiononinvestmentefficiencywithJorgenMR
son??ne0??classicalmodelandRichardson??investmentefficiencymodel?rTheresultshows?Fproductmarketcompetitionhelps
to
improvetheefficiencyofcorporateinvestment?AtheI?gloreintenseproductmarketcompet
itionintheindustry?rthemolee?oMa
eienttheinvestmentis?AgovernmentMRcontrolledenterprisesislesssensitiveto productmarketcompetition?Jandgovenm?Qnt
controlofthecompanydistortsinvestmentbehaviorandreducestheefficiencyofinvestment
?r
Keywords?Fproductmarketcompetition?Agovernmentcontrol?Ainvestmentexpenditure?Ainvestmentefficiency
??H2?i??
Modigliani??Miller(1958)???K?J?I???????=???'??
?8?J?2?F???(?K???"?r?????????????&???g?????J?2?F???? ?&???g?r???&?????Z?????1?????J???6???o????H(?O???? ?)?N???????o????H2???1????H2?r?L?,?o???4???M?????I?J?2 ?F?????&????H2?????(?K???????>?????L?F???2?F???&???? ???t?????????J????????M-???&?o??MP?cM-???&????MP?????+ ???[?KH(
?????(?K?????8???????2?F???&?[?K?J?I?????8???)?F ???????Q?2?F?????&???k?J?2?F???????(?K?????????????? ?????2?F???r?????&?????????G?F??H(???'???6???R???x ?????U?I?????(?K???????2?F?&?X?????????????I?????? ???????????8???r?2?F???&?Z?????????????J????????H2?? ?W??(2008)?R?????K?J???Q?????????(?K?????l???????J?& ???t?K?????P?F?????J???????B?[?"?r???K?8?'??????oH(?? ?JH2??????(2008)???K?&?X?????r?????(?K?????@?????I?? ?????I?J???]???U???????J?????(?K?????????l?????+???? ?N?J???4???????(?K?????r?1???????]????H2???]?????@?? ?Z???????J?r?????????]????H2?K?????&?@???????????a1H( ?+????H2???l??(2006)???K?????(?K?????8?????&?X?????@ ?????I?t?????????J???????????(?K?????????2?F???I???C
?????O??JH(?M????(2009)???K?????(?K?????8?????????? ?????)?(?????&?X?l???&?Z???B?????????J?2?F???????&?Z ???r?????(?K??????????????HJH(?8???tH2?a?D(2008)?? ?K?J?????(?K?????8???r???????&?Z?????k?@?????I?t???? ????"JH(?????Q?5???????(?K???????????J?????1???K?I?? ?H???[???&?????J?F?W?F?E?????&?Z??H(???)?Q???J???7?? ?R???x?????U?I?????(?K?????r?2?F?&?X???????2?F???& ?Z???????????????)?J?O?Z?????(?K?????r?2?F???&?+???? ?????R???o??H(
?2?F?r?>?????????7???c?K?N?J???M???2?F?r?>???@?? ???l???8??H(?N???n???5?????????L?????t???J?2?F?r?>?? ?@???o?J?8???H???2?Q?5???????J?Q???J?2?F???I???>???? ???>?????????????????'?J?????????K?F?N???????????&?? ?e?????7????H2?????????J?>?????????????7?2?F???????,H( ???c?????F?R?????r?2?F???>?????????V???????2?F???? ?L?>???t?F2010MR03MR02
?????????F???h?2???L?????????&??????(10457206DMR11) ???6?????F?????n(1974??)?J?w?J???h???????J???3H2?????t?J?R???n?K???&?
+???A?M????(1964??)?J?w?J???????????J????H2??
???t???3?J?R???n?K?&?X????H2???&?+??H(
??19??
Fan?JWong??Zhang(2007)?x???????n?????7?2?F???R
???????J?>???????'?????2?F???"CDo?J???&?Z???r???&?K?F ?@???????t???????J???????&?8?????G???J?R?2?F???????? ?&?????l?J?????????"????H(?>?????????????2?F?????&?[ ?K?J?'???????&?+???J???J???????2?F?????"H(?x?@?J???7?? ?Y?????>?????????2?F???&?+?????2?F???"???????????? ?o?????J?X???1?>???????x???[???I???>???????c???????? ???L???2?F?J?????>?????L?2?F?????????&?+????????H( ???'?n???&?X?(?K?U???)?(?????l?F?K???7?????????J
?5???>???F???????2?F?????t?t?V?????2?F???&?X?????J?? ?????????????C?>?>???1?F?????2?F?????&?[?KH(?X???1 ?F????2004MR2008???&?X?(?K?U???????????)?(???????? ?????R???J?Q???1???2?F???????(?K?????r?2?F???&?+???? ?????J?????>?????L???2?F???&?+????????H(
??H2???Y???????R???=??
Jorgenson(1963)?????????????k??(neoMRclassicalrood?r e1)??H(???K?&???e?X?Z?2?F???&???x?????????M?J?'?t???X ?t???&???e?X???????2?F???&???l?gH(???Z?2?F?????7?? ?&?K?F?'?????[???&?J?v?d???&?Z???+??H(?7?????&?????1 ???J???&???????????"???l????(NPV>0)?'?7???&???"H( ???&?o???????????2?F?&?X?????J???F?????????0???2?F?f ???????a?&?X?????J???&?X?????|?????r???|?e?X???????? ?&?X??????o(Bond??Meghir?J1994)H(???P?R???????????? ?6JamesTobin??1969???????????o??TobinMdsQ?1????1H( TobinMdsQ?"?????????????????&?K?F?J?????????&?Z???? ???rTobinMdBQ???????J?????&?x???'???7?+??H(FHP (Fazzari?JHubbard?JPetersen?J1988)???K?6binMdsQ???????q ???????????&?J?F???????????k???I?????????&???@(?c?1 ?????&???k)??C?H(Walker(2006)???I??EBITDA(???r???? ?<???'?E??)???????&?k???J?J???????I???J?[?????=?? binMdsQ?????=EBITDA???K???L??????M-H(Strong??Meyer (1990)?1?x???&?1???K???2?&?????W?????Q?????Z?????? ?????????&?J???????1???????????&?1???KNVP(?????") ?K???????????????&???????W(?c???t)???&?J?????W???& ???????W???&?J???1???????&?????c???&?o??H(Bond?? Meghir(1994)?I?l?????8???&?k??(Euler?requationmodel)?1 ?????????????q?????&??????H(8JH(
???zH2??????(2003)???????4???t???????????&???j ?k???????J?????&???j?Q?5?????=?????2???@???????n??
1989??2000???????&?+???????J???????M?l???U?Y?r?H?? ?C?>?????&???j?7?Q?K??????????M-H(?9???,(2004)?????] ?x?????????????????U?????&?????K?L?J???K???????&???? ?&?+?????8?Z???]???????H???>???>???????n???????J?1?? ???????U???]?o???????>???[?????'?o?6???K???????&?? ???????&?+?????8?????M??C?H(?M????(2009)??????Strong ??Meyer(1990)????Richardson(2006)???????U???(?K???? ?&?+??????H(
?????r?c???&???????6?@?????I?????o???????????? ???J???c???&?X?(?K?)???&???e?X???????????&?e?X???Y (Myers??Uajluf?J1984)?J?1?F???????????????&???o???V?0 ???????????"?????&?????J???t???&?o??H(?????????&?o?? ??20??
?F?????????N?????&?K?F?r?(?K?????J???(?K?????6???7?J ???t???K?l??????????H(???????K?l?????x???????????? ?????&?????r?(?K?????6???????????8??????(Froot?,?J 1993)?J???N?Z???J?[?F?????r?????(?K?????8???1?F?????? ???????????K?l????H(?????J?????????&?+???r?????(?K?? ???@???N???7??????????H(???X?J???J?????8???????[?F?J ???????[?FH2???I???F?,?J???????o???I?R??????H2???????? ???(?K?G???????J???G?????x???Z???j?o???J?o?Z?????J?? ???c?o???????"?????b???J???t???C???????e?X???????g?J ?????????G?F?E?????????????J?????&?+???????J?????9?? ?????&?o???????&????H(?J?I?????l?[?F?J???J???????@?? ???????????J?2?F?????????2?????&?J???????????J???????Z ?????J?????K?(?K?????A?????????????????????I???????? ???U?????t???J?2?F???B???l?????G?????J?????&?+?????? ??H(?J?????2?F?X???J???J???Z?G?F?E??????H2???'???G?? ???????????????7???&??????H(?T???)???1???????J?????X ???R???=??H(
H1?F?????(?K???????K???[?F?U?J???????&?+????H( ???c?R?????r?>?????L?????N?????>?????????>???? ?????V???????2?F?????"???Y(Fisman?J2001?AFaceio?J2006 ?,)?J?????2?F?????&?+??H(?????R???6???K?n???>?????L ???????9???H?>?????????????????>?????F?????4?J?????? ?????a??H2?N?FH2?r?L???V?F?b???,?J?N???M?e?????7?2?F?? ?>???l?t???J???????2?F???"k?1(?????t???+???]?J2006)?J ?M?e?2?F???&?[?K?????&?K?F?o???t?J?2?F?????&?x?????? ?o?Z?????2?F???"???l?c???0???J???J?'???????&?+??H(?> ?????L?????I?????C?????????????9???H???????C?>???B?J ???????9?c?6?????????E?????????[???w?V????(Faccio?,?J 2006)H(???????J?n???????????C?>?>???J???l???>?????&?? ?k?J???????>?????L?2?F?????&?????J???&???E?????????? ???N?F?????>?????L?2?F?o?????&???????I?+???J???????& ???????????J???????&?J???????'???????&???+??H( m?F?>?????L?2?F???&?+???????????>?????L?2?FH( ?7H2?R??????
(??)?R??????????
?X???R???????Y?????Z???&?Z??H2???&?+??H2?????(?K ???????>?????L?J???????&???t?K??H2?2?F???k???[?F?K?? ?L????H(
1?r???&?Z??H(???&?Z???????????g?x???????1?K?p ???F???????????g?????????????gH(???????????g???I???? ?????&?X?Z?????&???????????c???????????&?Z??????H( Lyandres(2003)???I???y???x?o????H2???>?????4?r???P?" ?????(??C??J???6??H2????H2??????(2007)???I???Z?????&??H2 ???t???&???????&???????"?T???????????=?x?&????]H(???? ???????g???I?????U?????H?????&?????F??????????????H( Rechardson(2006)???????f?????????x???&?X???&H2 R&D?Z??H2???U?????o????H2???>H2???4?????Y??1|?JHubbard
(1998)???I?&?X?Z???r???r???t???o????H2???>?????4?x ???????"?????????&?Z??CuHnH(???r??H2??????(2007)???I ?U???????&??H2?????&???????????t?&???Q?Z????????H2?U ?????5???????????????G?F???'?Q?Z????????H2?]???l?? (2007)???I?X?????U????
???&??H2?????&?????????&???Z???????????????P?x?&?? ???v?????"??????k?JH(?X?????I???????????????J?I?X?? ???U???????&??H2?????&?????????&???Z?????????????? ?P?x?&?????v?????"?????????????2?F?????&?Z??H( 2?r???&?+??H(Hayashi(1982)?I?????&?X?(?K?=???8 ???r?????a???&???Z???|Q(???&?K?F????)???????J???? ?&?K?F?Z???&???Z???????????M??M-H(???????|Q???o?? ???@?l?J?F?W???R?????????=Q?????J?J?????r???????? ???????4???????F?????????M?(?K???????lH2?&?X???J?I ?lH2?t???????????l???k?l?,?J??????TobinMdsQ?????U?? ?2?F???&?K?F???I?Q???l????????????JH(?????J?X?????2 ?F?e?????????K???&?K?F??????????H(
Modigliani??Miller(1958)???K?J?I???4?&?X?(?K?U?? ?&?r???&?????Z?????1?????J???6?o????H(?O?????)?N?? ?????o????H2???1????H2?r?L?,?o???4???M?????I?J?2?F?? ?&?X?????F?????&???????t?????????J???????&???t?K?? ???K??????????????????H(?J?????2?F???k???[?F???M?? ?K???L?????????3?2?F?????a???&?B??H(???7?+?????&?B ?????Z?2?F?????a???&?B???J?O?Z?N???(?K???o???4H2?>?? ???LH2?????(?K???????[?F?????(?,?????2?F???????a?? ?&?B???J?X???t??Richardson(2006)?????+?????&?????? ?????J???2?F???&???????2?F???a???&?B?????????????? ?2?F?????&?+???J?2?F???&???????a???&?B?????l???r?? ?&?+??????H(?????U?7???t???N?????q?????2?F???1?7?? ?????&???????"?K?t???????J?????2?F???|???&?????N??
?&?K?F?????????a???&?J?????????&?A???????N???2?F???N ?????q???o???J?????2?F???|???&?????N???&?K?F?????? ???a???&?J?????&?o??H(?X???7?I???????????"???K???& ?+?????????????J???????????"???l???????|???&?????? ?a???&?B?????l?J???&?+??????H(
3?r?????(?K????H(?????????c?R?????Y?????????( ?K?????8?????4?4?x???7?p?l???F?X?????Z???M?(?K???? ?8?????4?4?J???[?F???U??H2?????????4??H2?[?F???2?F?? ??H2???"?T?l?,?4?4?J?N???(?K???U?8???4?4???????????5 ?[?F???????Y?L???????J?O?Z?n?????'?F?????????????? ?????????I?J?)?(?????????[?F???????????????g?????J?? ?I?)?(???????????????F???I???l??????H(?X?????Z???? ?????(?K???????????4?4?J???????4??H(?+????H2?+????H2 ???l??(2006)???????????4??(HHI)H2?G?F?T?I?r?x?G?F ???L???@??(OEOR)?????E??????????(VNE)3?f????
?????M?????(?K?????8??H(2M-H(?????]H2?M??(2008)???I HHI(???????R?4??)???M?[?F?????l?J?I???????Y?????? ?[?F?x???Y???????????????2?F???????(?K??????JH(?? ?7???6?I?[?F?U?l?2?F???????c????H2?2?F???????(?K?? ?7?????????2?F?Q?I?[?F???????(?K?????8??H(???c???7 ???6???I???l??????H2???L?v?V??????H2?x?G?F???L?????? ??H2???&???L????H2???E?????????,?4?4??????H(?X?????? ?????4?J???I?G?F?E?????????2?F?????(?K??????H( 3?r?>?????LH(?2?F???>???1?y?Z?N???F?????????e ???p?f??????????H(?>?????L?Z?>???????U??????H(?X?? ?T?????]???L???????2?F?????|???L???J???Z?N???????H ???5???>???K???????>?????e???????L???)?(?????????K ?>?????L?J???"?Kl?J?v?d?K0H(
(??)?k????????
1?r???&?Z???k??
?K???R???2?F???1?????&???J???0???????&?Z???k???J ???????8???&?Z???k???F
INV=130+13l??Growth+JB2??LEV+??XSize+??
(1)
??Vy=130+??lX
Growth+????LEV+????Size+13,X
INDU+8(2)
INV=130+13lX
Growth+??2??LEV+????Size+??X
INDU+13,??CON+??(3)
2?r???&?+???k??
?I???&?Z???k??(2)?????Q?)?J?????5?????????J???? ???n???l?g?1?y???K???????&H2???&?o???????&?+???J????
?????8?k???F
ABEHAT=130+13I??Compete+??2??CFrate+133??CON 3?r????????????????
??1???????,??
(4)
?????v???????o?????????,
??H2???????????1??
(??)?w?X?7??
?X??????????CSMAR???????J?w?X?K???K2004MR 2008?I?)???????b?)?(??A???)?(?????J???7???d?K?F(1) ?????????)?(???????J???K?2?F???e???l?????o???7???? ?l?A(2)???????????A(3)?????w?X?K??????sT???????J?? ?????????C???????(?W?A(3)?????w?X?t?????(???????A (4)?????????????K?N?????@?"H(?????)???7???J?X???? ???H5899?f?????J?????w?X???????[??Winsor?5?1H(?X ?????Q?7?????5?1???????????=?IExcel2003??STA?r TAl0?r0?????1???????U???[H(
(??)?????l??????
??2???<???5???????x?????????????l?????J???T??t ????????(??3)?????5?x?????????=?"?I?>?????L?????> ?????L???????=???7?V?????(?J?>?????L?????????&?Z?? ??H2?&???t?K??H2???kH2?????(?K???????????????q???r?V ??2l??
2?w?X?????l??????
CONINVGrowthLEVSizeCompeteCFrate
(?7)???&?Z???k?????????1??
??4???&?Z???k???5??????????????
Constant
G?Jrowth
U??V
Size
CON
INDU
Obaervations
Adj??RMRsquared
F(P)
???L???L
589958995899
0?r02100?r13000?r1320
43?r22(0?r0000)21?r64(0?r0000)19?r87(0?r0000) tMRstatisticsin
parenthezesC?P<0??0I?JMPP<0?r05?JMdP<0?r1 (?8?J)
??5?U(1)H2(2)H2(3)?h?1?y?Z???k??(1)H2(2)H2(3)?? ?????????J?I?k??(1)?U?2?F???e???lH2?2?F???k???2?F?? ???&?Z???7?V???????????????J?&???t?K???????&?Z???V
???t?????J?I???????[?F???M???[?????r?J?k???0???r??
R2?r?V?????J???????>?????L???M?r?k?????7?V?????? ?cH(?X???1???k??(2)?K???Q???[???&?+?????1??H(?k?? ??22?r
(3)?Z???????>?????L???????r??????????H(
(??)???&?+?????????l????
??6?????8???I???&???????w?X?U?J?>?????L?2?F?? ???????g?????>?????L?2?F?J?O?Z?o?V???J?I???&?o?????w ?X?U?J?>?????L?2?F???????r?V?g?????>?????L?2?F?J???I ???&?o?????w?X?U?J?>?????L?2?F?????|???&?r???a???&?B ?????????????"???l?J???r?>?????L?2?F?????&?+??????H( ??6???????????l???????J
???F?X???????T???k??(2)?H??H(
(??)?>?????L?????&?+????????
?T???k??(2)?H?????????@???????(?K??????H2?>?? ???L?????&?+?????????J?T?????&?Z???k??(2)?H?????? ?????????2?F???&???????a???&?B?????8??H(?K???@???? ?????l?g?J?X???????????????"?J?I???|???&?B???????a?? ?&?B?????????????"???l?g???????&?+?????N?J???????? ?"???g?J?????2?F?????&?+??????H(
??7???&?+?????????1????
??7?X(1)H2(2)?h???w?X?????????8???2?F?G?F?E??
???????????J?2?F???E???????K?J???r?[?F?????(?K?????? ?????J?2?F???|???&?r???a???&?B???????????????"???N ???l?J?2?F?????&?+??????H(???U?X(3)H2(4)?h?????8???J ?>?????L?2?F?????&???2?F?G?F?E?????I5?6?B???)?V ???J???R?????g?????>?????L?2?F?J???r?>?????L?2?F???? ?&?[?K???????(?K???????o?????>?????L?2?F???t?J???? ?(?K???????????>?????L?2?F???&?????????lH( (??)?b???l????
?K???????k??(2)???b???l?J?I?k??(2)?U?????>????
???????b???????M????
n??
?v@n
??
k?Cu??
??
??0
n
??0
n
M-0
??????Sm???????b
n
??
?v@n
??
k?Cu
??()
??()
??
"???Jk?
Cum?J????????????????
(3)?????@?2?F?????&?Z???B???J?????? ?????J???I???????????"???????2?F?????????2?F???G????
?q???[?????1???J???H?????"??????(????8)H( ??8???&?+?????????1????
???F?X???Z?T???k??(3)?H?????????Q?????????? ??H2?R?????????Z?K
?X???R?????????(?K????H2?>?????L???2?F???&?+??
???????J???????r?????(?K???????????K?7????????????
???2?F?????&?+???J?rFan?JWong??Zhang(2007)???R???? ???????J?>?????L?2?F???????(?K???????o?????>?????L ?2?F???tH(?R???????7?????1???n???????????????8?>?? ???L?2?F?????&?[?KH(?X???????????(?K???????????K?7 ?????????2?F???&?+???????????????r?n???>?????????? ????H2?i???(?K???????>???Z??????H(?2?F???&?+?????( ?K?????????J?????'?Z?????2?F???&?+?????T?X?????J?I?? ?????1?o?????????????8?J?(?K???????H?????????&?+?? ?????????IH(?????????"?E?I?Q??M-?????(?K?????K?L?? ?Q?7?]?T?????????J?Z?????a?????>???W??MPH(?>?????L ?2?F???(?K???????o???tH2???&?+?????????????????r?J?? ???????2?F?L??H2???0?>???[?K???????l?J?????>?????L?2 ?F?????????2?F?L???7?????????2?F?????&?+??H(?I?n?? ???????????C?>?>?????l?????8?J???0?>?????L?2?F???? ?&?[?K?J?????2?F?????&?+?????W????H(?O?Z?X???R???? ?7???????Q???l?F?R???????7???n???)?(?????J???7?????K ???h?F?????)?(?????A?????[?F?2?F???????n?J?o???????? ?M?????2?F?5?[?F???????A?X???R???????7?0?????|???? ?(?K???????l?????J?????1?Z?8?????R????????H(
???0???Y?FH(
[1]???????J???W???r?????(?K????H2???k?9?I?l?r?&?X????[J]?r ?????????J2008(6)?F109??114?r
[2]???J?J???????r?&?X?????r?????(?K?????@???????????I?R?? [J]?r???1?????J2008(5)?F19MR26?r
[3]?+?????J???l???r?????(?K???????2?F?&?X??????????[J]?r?? ?1?????J2006(5)?F50MR57?r
[4]?M?????J????H(?????r?)?(?????????&?[?K?r???&?+???R?? [M]?r?)???F?)???C???l?????+?V?r2009?r137MR138?r
[5]?8???t?J?a?D?r?????(?K?????8???????????&?[?K???????P?? ?R??[J]?r?C?F?3?)?J2008(2)?8?F14??16?r
[6]FanJH(WangTJ?JTZhang?rPoliticallyConnectedCEOs?JCorporate Governance?JandPostMRIPOPerformanceofChinagNewlypartially PrivatizedFirms[J]?rJournalofFinancialEconomics?r2007?J84 (2)?F330MR357?r
[7]JorgensonD
W?rCapitalTheoryandInvestmentBehavior[J]?rA?r
meficanEconomicReview?J1963H(55(2)?F247MR261?r
[8]BondS?JCMeghi?rDynamicInvestmentModelsandtheFirm'sFiMR nancialPolicy[J]?rReviewofEconomicStudiesH(1994?J61(2)?F197 MR222?r
[9]TobinJ?rAGeneralEquilibriumApproachto
MonetaryTheory[J]?r
JournalofMoney?JCreditandBanking?J1969H(l(1)?F15MR29?r [10]FazzariS?JHubbardRGH(BCPetersen?rFinancingConstraintsand CorporateInvestment[J]?JNBERWorkingPaperNo?r2387?J1987 (9)?r
[11]RichardsonS?rOverInvestmentofFreeCashFlew[J]?r??viwof AccountingStudies?J2006?J11(2)?F159MR189?r
[12]???z?J???????r?T???U?????????&???j???+?????N???U???1?2 ?????&?????&?+???1??[J]?r??????2003(4)?F807MR32?r [13]?h???l???U???????R???U?????????r???S?F?l?l?E?????2?? ?????????????R??[M]?r?h???F?h???l?????+?V?J2005?r99MR 102?r
[14]MyersS?JNMajluf?rCopporateFinancingandInvestmentDecisions WhenFinnsHaveInformationthatInvestorsDoNotHave[J]?r JournalofFinancialEconomicsH(1984?J13(2)?F187MR221?r [15]FreotKA?JScharfsteinDS?JJCStein?rRiskManagement?FCoordi- natingCorporateInvestmentandFinancingPolicies[JHn?rTheJour- halofFinance?J1993?J48(5)?F1629MR1658?r
[16]FismanR?rEstimatingtheValueofPoliticalConnections[J]?rMH
AmericanEconomic
Review?J2001?J91(4)?F1095??l102?r
[17]?????t?J?+???]?r????????H2?????????r???????e?X[J]?r???? ?R???J2006(5)?F74MR86?r
[18]FaccioM?JMasulisRw?JJJMccormeU?rPoliticalConnectionsand CorporateBailouts[J]?rTheJourralofFinance?J2006?J61(6)?F 2597MR2635?r
[19]LrandresE?rCapitalStructureandInteractionamongFirmsinOut- putMarkets?FTheoryandEvidence[J]?rJournalofBusiness?J 2006?r79(5)?F238l??421?r
[203???6???J?????J???????r?>?????LH2???1?????r?&?X???&[J]?r ?????R???J2007(8)?F110MR122?r
Hr21]RichardsonS?rOverMRinvestmentofFreeCashFlow?rReviewof AccountingStudies?J2006H(ll(2)?F159MR189?r
[22]HubbardGR?rCapitalMRMarketImperfectionsandInvestment?r JournalofEconomicLiterature?r1998?J36(1)?F193MR225?r [23]???r???J???????r???2?1??H2???1???M?r???????&[J]?r???1?c ?[?J2007(4)?F88MR95?r
[24]???6???J???????J?????r?r?2?F????H2?>?????L?r???&?+??[J]?r ?????R???J2007(10)?F123MR142?r
[25]HayashiF?rTobinMdSMa??nalQandAverageQ?FANeoclassical Interpretation[J]?rEconometriea?J1982?J50(1)?F224MR313?r [26]?????A?J?8???r???&???????q???t?l?F???&???????Z???1?e?X? [J]?r?C???R???J2007(2)?F37MR46?r
[MP]?+????H(???l???r?????(?K???????2?F?&?X??????????[J]?r ???1?????J2006(5)?F50MR57?r
[28]?????]?J?a?N?r?????(?K?????r???????S?I?o???????R??[J]?r ????????H(2008(1)?F97??103?r(?m???c???F????)
??23??